How to place a Live Value bet on football games?
This is your Live Betting Guide on How to Get Max out of your Live bet on football games! Live bets are the kind of bets that the users intervene while the event on which we want to bet is in dispute.
In other words, in the case of football betting, while the game is being played. This type of betting combines the excitement of betting with the monitoring of our favorite football events. That makes them increasingly popular.
Table of content:
- How to place a Live Value bet on football games?
- The basis of all live betting tactics: The dynamics of the odds
- Strategy to bet on Live soccer betting
The basis of all live betting tactics: The dynamics of the odds
During the development of sporting events, the odds of the different results change depending on the development of the match. Every goal scored changes the probability of the final outcome.
The passage of time itself also makes these probabilities change. A match that is 0-0 in the first minute does not have the same probability of ending in a draw as if we are in the 85th minute with the same score.
If we want to take advantage of this dynamic in betting prices, we’re obliged to meet a series of requirements. Without them, we will hardly be successful. First, we have to consider that the bookmakers always know the important events in advance of the bettors.
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Strategy to bet on Live soccer betting
Speaking of football matches in which we bet on the final result, we like to distinguish three possible approaches, which we describe in the sections that follow.
1. Bet on the most probable and close live in cascade.
The first joint live betting technique supported by pre-match betting consists of betting on the most probable outcome. And also, when the match starts to move in that direction, successively hedging the complementary outcomes to ensure profit.
Let’s take a practical example:
Match: Valencia CF vs Sevilla CF
Valencia CF win odds: 2
Draw odds: 3.2
Sevilla win odds: 4.8
In this case, given the inverse relationship between odds and probability, the tactic is next. It’s placing a bet in favor of Valencia CF before starting the match. Let’s bear in mind that this situation is always more likely to occur during the game than it is to end like this. In other words, with odds 2, Valencia’s probability of victory is 50%. Therefore the probability that it does not win is another 50%.
However, if they do not win in the end, the situation may arise that during the match they are ahead on the scoreboard. So, the probability that Valencia, during some phase of the match, will beat Sevilla is greater than 50%.
When that situation occurs, the odds of Sevilla’s draw and victory increase. That’s why we take advantage of that situation to settle a bet that covers the possibility that Sevilla equal the contest or even come back. We will do this successively as the odds reach the values that we set for ourselves through an arbitrage strategy. In this way, we can hedge our initial bet and secure the profit.
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2. Bet on the highest value (+ EV) and trade (or hedge) using live betting
Note that the downside of the way of operating. It’s that it does not take into account the real probabilities of the events. So, if we believe before the match that the victory of Valencia CF has a probability of happening of 40% (less than the probability implicit in the odds), it makes no sense to enter that pre-match bet. It’s because the odds don’t justify us the bet.
It makes much more sense to use this technique only in cases where the actual odds before the game compared to the odds justify seating the bet. In other words, we will apply this strategy only if we believe that the probability of victory for Valencia CF is greater than 50%.
Alternatively, what makes more sense is to start the match by having a bet on the result that offers the most positive value (+EV). To cover the result successively if the match opts-in that direction. Although we are not betting on the most probable result and therefore we have a higher failure rate, it can be shown that the economic result is always superior and favourable to the bettor if we stay on the side of value.
3. Bet on two results and live coverage of the third
Continuing with the previous example, there is an even better alternative to simply betting on Sevilla CF in a pre-match. It consists of betting that the victory of Valencia does not occur, or what is the same, betting both on the Draw and on the victory of Sevilla CF.
In this way, we are betting in pre-match on two events with value (+ EV), and also the probabilities that during the match a quota will be given that allows us to cover the final victory of Valencia increases enormously, reducing the drawdown or number of times our bets are unsuccessful.
Again, this strategy is interesting when we have two results with real probabilities higher than those implicit in the quotas. If this situation does not occur, it is advisable not to position and assume the risk of loss.
Also see – Half-Time-Final Betting System
