Many amateur bettors prefer to bet on the victory of a team. They do a bunch of analyzes, study the form of the teams, the presence of the players if there are any substitutes, and even the weather. They sometimes spend hours there only to have a disappointing result.
While it is little for a match to end with few goals: an important stake, an ultra-defensive team, mediocre attackers, or even the absence of starting scorers. In addition, to bet before the match starts, there is a big part of chance or even bad luck in the worst cases. Hence, it’s recommended that you bet live preferably with the match in person or in the worst case with the game statistics.
For those unfamiliar with the increasingly popular over 2.5 and under 2.5 bets, this involves betting on the number of goals in a football match. Over 2.5 means that it is believed that there will be more than 2 goals in a game. And as there is no half-goal, the bet is necessarily winning or losing: losing if there are 0, 1, or 2 goals and winning from 3 goals scored. The Under 2.5 is to bet on a match in which we hope that there will be 0, 1, or 2 goals but no more.
Table of content:
- Why choose to bet on the over/under 2.5 goals option?
- How does the method work?
- A concrete example to illustrate – MLS – 07/08/18
- Chicago Fire’s last 4 league games
- Bet live during the match
- However, you’ll have to respect certain conditions
Why choose to bet on the over/under 2.5 goals option?
We present here a simple method of evaluating matches, which you can improve, to try to identify the matches in which there is the most chance that few goals are scored, or on the contrary a lot of goals.
This method only takes a few minutes to analyze a match, but since there are dozens of matches every day, it may be wise to stick to all the matches of a particular league for example, with a focus on quality.
How does the method work?
The method consists of assigning a score to a match based on the last 4 league games played by the 2 teams. You can visit quite a lot of statistics platforms like flashscore.com or softcore.com to access the essential for this kind of analysis. For each team, assign a score for each of their last matches by applying this scoring scale:
- Match with 3 or more goals: +0.50 points
- Where both teams scored: +0.75 points
- With 2 goals or less: -0.50 points
- In the match were only 1 team scored: -0.75 points
Once the scores have been awarded, complete the total and only bet under 2.5 on matches that have a total score of fewer than -5 points, and over 2.5 only on matches that have a total score of more than +5 points.
These are arbitrary limits, with experience you choose your own.
At the time of the bet, it is of course necessary to take in odds the odds of the bookmaker. As always, it is the relationship between your match analysis, your rating, and the proposed odds that will determine whether the bet is worthwhile or not.
A concrete example to illustrate – MLS – 07/08/18
Vancouver Whitecaps v Chicago Fire
Last 4 Vancouver Whitecaps Championship games
- Vancouver Whitecaps v Colorado Rapids: 0 – 1 (-0.5 – 0.75 = – 1.25 points)
- Philadelphia Union v Vancouver Whitecaps: 4 – 0 (0.5 – 0.75 = – 0.25 point)
- Vancouver Whitecaps v Orlando City: 5 – 2 (0.5 + 0.75 = 1.25 point)
- Colorado Rapids v Vancouver Whitecaps: 1 – 2 (0.5 + 0.75 = 1, 25 point)
- Total score: +1 point
Chicago Fire’s last 4 league games
- Chicago Fire v New York City: 3 – 2 (0.5 + 0.75 = 1.25 points)
- Seattle Sounders v Chicago Fire: 1 – 1 (-0.5 + 0.75 = 0.25 point)
- Atlanta United v Chicago Fire: 0 – 1 (-0.5 – 0.75 = – 1.25 point)
- Colorado Rapids v Chicago Fire: 1 – 2 (0.5 + 0.75 = 1 , 25 point)
- Total score: +1.5 point
We, therefore, arrive at a total of +2.5 points, which gives a tendency to over 2.5 even if we are below the limit initially planned at +5 points for betting on over 2.5.
In terms of odds, here is what the bookmakers offered on average for this match:
- over 2.5: 1.45
- under 2.5: 2.20
The odds of over 2.5 remain reasonable, we can possibly adapt the setting according to our level of confidence. For example, 1 unit when we exceed +5 points, and 0.5 unit between 2 and 5 points. Once again, it’s up to you to build your own system from this base and your experience.
Bet live during the match
To bet on 2.5 goals once the match has started, it’s important that you are seeing the match or monitoring the stats via a streaming platform. If during the match, you have no statistical data, it’s not wise that you place a stake.
Now, wait for the odds of +2.5 goals to reach 1.5 before placing your bet. Usually, this happens around 25/30 minutes. But beware, there are 3 conditions to respect:
- At least 3 shots on target in total regardless of the team
- At least 3 goalkeeper saves regardless of the team as well
- Balanced ball possession: 50/50 or 40/60 or 60/40. (Ban the 30/70 or 20/80, in fact, when you have this type of possession, it means that one of the two teams is ultra-defensive. The goal is for there to be goals!)
If these 3 conditions are met, then you can go ahead to place your bet. Otherwise, avoid the stake. As it is very difficult to have odds of 1.5 with a combined +2.5 goals on a bookmaker, the idea is to play a single bet of +2.5 goals to obtain your featured quota. You can bet before the match starts, however, be aware that a part of chance can work against you and cause you to lose your bet.
However, you’ll have to respect certain conditions:
- Each team must have more than 75% of their matches that end with a +2.5 goals
- Must have an average of more than 3.8 goals per game
- Each team must have at least 70% of their matches with at least one goal in the first half
- Must have a number of goals scored greater than the number of matches they have played.
- Each team must have a number of goals conceded greater than the number of matches they have played.
- There must be no absent starting scorers
Now that we have seen the strategy and the match selection criteria, now, you can proceed to place your bet on high goal-scoring leagues to choose for your +2.5 goals.
