Using the Correct Score System as A Football Betting Strategy
One of the popular strategies for football bettors is the correct score market (a prediction of the final score in a game), but because you cannot tell how the game will go or end, it is quite hard to predict the score for any match accurately. Therefore, it is quite a big risk to take (whether as a beginner or an expert), considering that there are many possible outcomes.
However, there are strategic ways of increasing the probability of accurately predicting the scores, and this article will provide you with useful tips. Now, not all these tips can work for everyone, and some of them will yield better results than others, so as usual, read through this content and decide whichever strategy works best for you and your bankroll.
Table of content:
- Using the Correct Score System as A Football Betting Strategy
- Low scoring games
- Goals Expected
- Group Your Bets
- Seeking Value From Short—Priced Favourites
- Both Teams Score (Bts) Score Lines
Low scoring games
Before placing a bet on a game between two teams using the correct score system, you have to determine if it is a low scoring game or a high scoring game. Betting on a low-scoring game will increase your chances of accurately predicting the score because fewer scores are considered. This is different from betting on a high scoring game where a team can score as high as 5.
Basically, the higher the scores that can be acquired in a game, the more options there are, and consequently, the lower the chances of accurately predicting the total score of the game. Consider this analogy. In a box, there are two oranges. So a person can either pick none or one or both oranges (three possible outcomes).
However, in a box where there are five oranges, a person can either pick none, one, two, three, four, or five oranges (six possible outcomes).
Frequent score lines
In order to have a better chance of predicting an accurate final score, you can look out for the most frequent score lines. This is obviously because there is a high chance of a game-ending with such score lines.
Half time betting
Betting on half of the game reduces the risks involved and makes the correct score system easier. This is a brilliant move, mainly because it reduces the chances of having high scores like 5-1 or 6-0
Betting at intervals
This strategy has the same concept as half time betting. The only difference is that, here, you can bet on the core of the game at different intervals (5-minute intervals, 10-minute intervals, etc.)
Goals Expected
Although football is far from being merely data-based, it is vital to use it as a basis to try and anticipate what is most likely to happen before you use your own experience and intuition.
If you have not heard of Expected Goals (xG), it is a data collection formulated by Opta, the world’s biggest football data company. They have gathered goals scored from an extensive database of games, and they take into account aspects like who scored, how they scored, from the position to build-up to the goal began, the position they scored from, the type of goal, and many, many more variables.
Expected goals then evaluate current games and say how often a game transition can result in a goal based on their analysis. For instance, this may be the ball’s passage crossed in from the striker’s left side is five yards out and heads the ball to the top right corner, etc.
Maybe they score 90 percent of the time here, so if this happens in a game, if they score, they are 10 percent up, but if they lose, they are 90 percent down. All events are then compiled into one number, which tells you whether the team scores the predicted number of goals.
We can then bring that data and add it to the upcoming match to see the score.
Group Your Bets
It is going to be a difficult problem to choose one correct result from 20+ potential outcomes. You stretched to the limit if you want to make money from this betting market reliably in the long term unless you have a few choices.
We often use two, three, or even four games that allow us to have a bet cover and then make more money on a more consistent basis. You are losing a significant win because of the increased outlay, but you are going to win a lot more frequently, that is for sure.
Your process will stay the same when it comes to figuring out what potential scores could be because this is also a crucial part of the plan. Then you only need to take a set of scores from across the bet and then combine them as multiple selections.
This is for long-term profit rather than short-term winnings.
Seeking Value From Short—Priced Favourites
Short priced favorites about 1.10 or even less are typically unbackable. If you made a wager of £100 at that price, you would only get £10 back, which is not worth the trouble to most of you.
The correct score bet might be a perfect choice for these matches, however, definitely in terms of choosing high score lines when the big teams play the Minnows. International fixtures are also the best for this since you get many games where big favorites play tiny countries with little chance of winning. A clear example of this, and a fixture that seems like it is more popular than it should be, is that of England v San Marino.
A characteristic of this fixture comprises a lot of goals, lots of clean sheets, and the vast majority scored by England, again from England.
Both Teams Score (Bts) Score Lines
A good tactic that a lot of bettors want to deal with is to back up the score lines that both teams want to score. This ensures that they remain in bets for a lot longer than back up to zero score lines, potentially dead in a couple of minutes.
Since we know that both 1-1 and 2-1 (home and away wins) score lines are some of the most probable, this undoubtedly has a lot more value than you would expect. The international examples listed above might not be the clearest illustration.
Nevertheless, for leagues like the Championship or even the Premier League, where a lot of games are insanely-competitive, you could certainly make a case to select scores where both teams score a goal.
This does not mean that you have to skip “to null” results, but it does give a lot more versatility in your bets to allow both teams to score a goal at some point.
