Odds Conversion In Sport Betting
Did you know why is Understanding Odds Conversion in Sports Betting so important? When trying to place a bet on any game, calculating the odds is as important as playing the game itself.
\This is because, having a solid orientation about the odds and possible wins and losses allows for you as a bettor to know when, how and on what games you should place your bets.
Odds generally are a measure of the likelihood of any happening. In the world of betting, odds are the likely possibilities that a bet will pull through with a win. Now, these possibilities can be calculated, and so it brings about the process of odds conversion. The potential winner of your wager is subject to your stake and a combination of relevant odds.
Table of content:
- Odds Conversion In Sport Betting
- Basics to Sports Betting Odds Conversion
- Classifications Of Odds By Formats
- Converting The 3 Odd Formats To Their Implied Probabilities
- How To Convert Implied Probability To Odd Formats
Basics to Sports Betting Odds Conversion
In sport betting, odds serve two basic purposes. First, it shows how likely it is for a particular outcome to happen. This is so because the less likely an outcome, the higher the win will be and the more likely it is, the lesser the win.
Secondly, odds are used to determine the payout of winning wagers. Whenever you place a bet with a bookmaker, you would be shown the odds which have a strong impact on how much you can win. The higher your odds, the more you stand to win depending on your stake per time.
For example, in a game of lawn tennis where a player who is known to be the best plays against another player who is ranked 99th on the list of the top 100, it is very clear that the former would win. So, this is to say that a bettor who wagers on the first player as the winner would definitely have very low odds, and one who wagers on the other one as the winner would have higher odds.
Classifications Of Odds By Formats
Odds as explained above have various formats which are subject to region. Though there are a lot, our explanation will be restricted to only the American, British and European formats. Being familiar with these odds is important because as a bettor, you will definitely come in contact with them. They are
· Decimal Odds:
Decimal odds are the most widespread odds in the world. They are represented as 1.65 or 2.95. Experienced bettors prefer to use decimal odds, and it is mostly used in European countries and Australia.
· Fractional Odds:
Fractional odds are represented as 5/2 or 3 to 2 ‘on’ and have been the most used odds in the United Kingdom. Although, decimal odds are now becoming more popular. As the name implies, fractional odds are based on fractions and though they can be a little more complicated than the other two, they are fairly easy to understand.
· American Odds:
Also known as Moneyline Odds, American Odds are most commonly used in the Unites States and Canada. These odds are represented as -120 or +140 etc. This format centres around the $100 being the standard betting amount, and they usually have a positive (+) or negative (-) next to the betting odds. When the odds are positive, the odds show how much a $100 bet would produce if won. On the other hand, if the odds are negative, it shows the amount need to win $100.
Converting The 3 Odd Formats To Their Implied Probabilities
Converting odds to implied probabilities involve a knowledge of the odds and how they are applied. First you need to identify the odds you would like to convert. Decide within yourself to know if they are Decimal, American or Fractional. With this knowledge, you can now convert the odds to their implied probabilities and finally, you can convert the implied probabilities to your preferred format.
Using Decimal Odds as an example, decimal odds of 3.00 has an implied probability 33.3% which can be converted to 2/1 as fractional odds.
Below is a detailed analysis of odd conversion to their implied probabilities;
Decimal Odds:
Decimal odds express your return for every single unit placed. For example, a bookmaker may offer odds of 1.65 for Liverpool to win a football match. This implies that for every 1.00 you bet on that specific outcome, you are to receive a profit of 0.65 if Liverpool wins. In converting these odds to their specific implied probabilities, we calculate:
Implied probability = 1/Decimal Odds
Also, Wijnaldum to get a yellow card is odds 1.65. So, when multiplied by 100 to express an implied probability percentage, it gives 60.6%
1/1.65 = 0.606 = 60.6%
Fractional Odds:
As one of the most traditional forms of expressing betting odds, fractional odds are a simple reflection of the revenue to be received from betting a particular amount. So, if a bookmaker offers odds of 5/2 for a particular horse to win in a horseracing tournament, it simply means that the odds knew “5 to 2” will earn you 5 units back as profit for every 2 units you bet. So, for every N2000 you stake, you receive N5000 in profit in addition to your initial stake of N2000.
Implied Probability = Denominator / (denominator + numerator)
Still maintaining our example used earlier, Wijnaldum to get a yellow card is expressed as odds 5/2. To express implied probability percentage, we have 28.57%.
5/2 = 2/ (2+5) = 2/7 = 0.2857 = 28.57%
Moneyline Odds:
Moneyline odds are of two classes. They are the minus moneylines and the plus moneylines. ‘Minus moneylines’ are expressed as -120. For example, a bookmaker is offering odds of -120 for Liverpool to win a match. This means that to make a win of 100 units, you must have placed a bet of 120 units. ‘Plus moneylines’ are expressed as +180 and this also means that if a bookmaker is offering odds of +180, you will have to bet 100 units to win 180 units.
Minus Moneylines
Implied Probability = ( – (‘minus moneyline odds) ) / ( – (‘minus’ moneyline odds) ) +100
So, if a bookmaker like Wazobet offers -120 odds for a game between Manchester United and Chelsea, it will be expressed as thus:
( – ( -120 ) / ( ( – ( -120 ) ) + 100 = 120 / 220 = 0.545 = 54.5%
54.5% is the implied probability percentage when multiplied by 100
Plus Moneylines
Implied Probability = 100 / ( plus moneyline odds + 100 )
If the same Wazobet, offers +180 for a game between Manchester United and Chelsea, with Manchester United winning, will be calculated like this:
( 100 / 180 + 100 ) = 100 / 280 = 0.357 = 35.7%
35.7% is the implied probability percentage.
How To Convert Implied Probability To Odd Formats
As we have seen, the conversion of odds to implied probability is easy if the rules are followed. Now, let’s convert implied probabilities back to odds.
Decimal Odds:
Converting implied probability back to odds will follow the formula
Decimal Odds = 100 / implied probability
For example, if Barcelona has a 75% probability of defeating Man City, 75% will be converted back to odds.
100 / 75 = 1.33
In Decimal Odds, an implied probability of 75% will return as 1.33
Fractional Odds:
Converting implied probability to odd follows the formula
Fractional Odds = ( 100 / implied probability ) – 1
In a game where Wayne Rooney has 25% probability of scoring a goal, the fractional odds will be calculated as:
(100 / 25 ) – 1 = 4 – 1 =3
The outcome is 3 and this means that the odds will be expressed as fractional odds of 3 to 1
Moneyline Odds:
This calculation is a little different from the others as it depends on if the implied probability is above 50% or below.
When the odds are above 50% it is calculated as
Moneyline Odds = – (implied probability / (100 – implied probability ) ) x 100
If Lionel Messi has a 75% of scoring against Levante, it will be calculated as:
-(75 / ( 100 – 75 ) ) x 100 = – ( 75 /25 ) x 100 = -3 x 100 = -300
Moneyline odds here are 300
When the odds are below 50%, it is calculated as
Moneyline Odds = ( 100 – implied probability / implied probability ) x 100
If Bendtner has a 25% chance of scoring against Stuttgart, it will be calculated as thus:
( ( 100 – probability) / (probability) x 100 ) = ( (75 ) / (25) x 100) = 3 x 100 = 300
Moneyline odds are +300
Sometimes there are charts to determine these numbers but at other times, you may have to do the conversions yourself. It is also worthy of note that odds can be affected by factors such as the amount a bookmaker has taken on a market or even the bookmaker’s view of the market. For this reason, you may expect little changes here and there
Also see:
How to bet on late goals in football games?
Live Betting Guide: How to Get Max out of your Live Bet?
