Betting on football draws is an often-foreseen betting technique. Many fans expect their side to win and the other to lose, which also determines their bet choices. In this post, we list the likelihood of making draws, forecasting them, and more.
How to Bet on Draws
Most people, particularly football fans, choose to gamble by trusting their gut feelings or helping the team they want to win. Arsenal fans will bet on an Arsenal victory, for example, while Manchester United fans will reliably win their side. This means that the bookmaker’s burden (what the operators have to shell out to punters) is usually loaded for either team to win.
If no one favors a particular result, the bookies will raise the odds on it, thus lowering the odds on other outcomes. This ensures that they would have to pay less if the other results are successful. A draw may have actual odds of about 9/4; however, a lack of bets may drive odds up to 5/2 or even close to 3/1.
Separating odds sets
This becomes really apparent as you look at multiple sets of chances. Let’s look at two cases of 1X2 results. The first has a clear home favorite, with odds of 13/20, 23/10, and 19/4 (for a home team win, draw, and away team win, respectively), while the second has more odds at 9/5, 24/10, 10/5. If you’ve been paying attention, you’ll see that despite the chances being different, a tie is just as possible. The draw is the second most possible outcome in the first set, although the draw is the second set’s most likely outcome.
As you can notice, a draw can be almost as possible as when there is a strong favorite to win as when both teams are equally rivalled. This is often caused by excessive betting on the favorite, which can skew odds.
The Probability of Draws in Football
For instance, soccer players are not encouraged to settle for a draw. Both professional leagues grant three points for a victory and just one for a loss. This does not deter, however, from being frequent. How possible a draw is to be, is somewhat different between leagues. Although draws are more frequent in lower leagues, they are less common in higher leagues. This can be shown plainly in the percentages of draws between the EPL and Series A and Series B, League 1, and the Bundesliga and Bundesliga 2. Just in case you’re curious, the league with the most draws in 2019 – 2020 was the Uruguay Primera, with a massive draw figure of 54.17 percent!
A Mathematical Approach to Predicting Draws
Although it’s beneficial to know how many draws exist in a given league, it doesn’t tell us how likely a draw would be in a specific matchup. Bookies use statistical equations to estimate the probability of any potential result to determine their chances. This covers ties, victories, defeats, and individual results. Poisson Distribution and Regular Distribution are two of the most common models.
Predicting Draws with Poisson Distribution
Poisson’s distribution is a tool that uses probability theory to determine how likely an occurrence is to occur. You may use it to measure the odds of a given football result. To do this, you first need to measure your league’s overall goal goals, attack power, and defensive strength on both sides. You should apply the percentages of all drawing scores (0 – 0, 1 – 1, 2 – 2, 3 – 3, 4 – 4, etc.) after determining how likely each particular score is.
Normal Distribution in Betting Draws Strategy
A normal distribution is a mathematical model focused on averages and how much they arise. Two teams may have the same overall ranking, but one team may be very reliable, and one team also outperforms and underperforms. By measuring the standard deviation, you can see how much and how far the outcomes vary from the mean. This could give you a more complex result.
Other Mathematical Factors
If you’re trying to gamble on draws, look at how possible a draw is in a given league. The Draws have a lot of correlations. Low-scoring leagues have more draws than higher-scoring leagues: the less the targets, the more probable the draw.
Another rule of thumb is to search for teams that are nearly equal in strength. One way to achieve this is to use Elo ratings. If a team is worse, it will make up for home-field advantage.
Soft Factors
In addition to a more statistical approach, there are also soft variables that can increase or decrease a draw’s chance. Though they are highly influential, they are not as easy to measure and are frequently overlooked by bookies.
Playing Style
While some aspects, such as attack/defense ratio, attack power, goals scored, goals conceded, etc., are readily quantified, the exact type of match ups between the various teams is difficult to express in numbers. Strategic situations are a matter for administrators. Even, it can’t hurt to come up with your likely possibilities about how a match is going to be worked out.
Motivation Factor
Motivation is another significant aspect. This depends a lot on when the tournament is in the season and is especially important at the end of the season. Teams who really need to win a title or keep themselves from being relegated, are more driven than teams in the middle of the pack. Teams with little to win or lose will be more comfortable with a draw.
Weaker teams can also be more comfortable with a draw when they face stronger teams. Instead of seeking to win, they may be happy to protect and close down the squad with better accolades merely.
Draw Betting Systems Ranked
There are numerous draw betting schemes, some of which we suggest, such as draw help and two out of five systems. Others, though, such as hunting a match, are inherently more dangerous. We graded them from the best to the worst.
Backing the Draw System
The most prominent method for drawing betting is to back up the draw system. The principle behind this is straightforward. Since punters and football enthusiasts are more likely to gamble on winning games, there is less money to bet on draws. This means that the bookies are inflating bets on draws. Although the actual odds on a draw are closer to 2/1 (or slightly lower), the lack of betting has driven the odds up to near 3/1. If you gamble on three draws with odds equivalent to 3/1 and win just one of them, you’re always going to make a profit.
Several tipsters make a living selling point tips based on this method. They usually select three or more matches a week to draw picks while boasting a substantial ROI. Of course, there’s no reason you can’t work it out.
2 out of 5 System
The 2 out of 5 system is a technique involving accumulators or a system bet. Here, you’ve picked five matches that are expected to be drawn. Instead of betting specifically on the five players, you put a machine bet, betting on both doubles (the result of each individual match wagered with each of the other matches). As the name suggests, you would only need two out of every five matches to make a profit. This generally works whether the odds are on average more than 23/10 (which is typical for draws) or higher for your choices.
Betting on Draw/Odd Total
This is essentially a form of Dutch or Arbitration betting. On the one hand, you bet on a draw. On the other, you bet on an odd (instead of) score. Since a draw is always even a score, you can be sure you’re going to win. Of course, whether this strategy is working depends on the odds. Most of the odds of bookies are set in a way that prevents this from happening. However, sometimes you can find the opportunity to shop between different bookies.
Chasing a Draw
Chasing a draw is a less sophisticated way of making bets. It’s a variant of the Martingale betting technique, which tells you to keep doubling your bets before you’re in the dark. Here, you’re only betting on the same team to draw and double your bets to make up for any losses. It makes sense on the surface; any team will inevitably draw. It’s only a matter of time, then, before you really make money. The strategy, however, has drawbacks. Your bankroll isn’t limitless because if a player gets a long enough run without a win, you won’t have much money left.
If you want to pursue this dangerous approach, we suggest starting with really low stakes because your bet size would rise exponentially on a losing streak.
