With tennis tournaments occurring almost 11 months a year, there’s almost always a handful of matches to bet on and trade pre-game and in-game. Betting markets are almost always fluid and vibrant, although some five-set marathons over three hours trigger crazy price spikes, which are perfect conditions for traders. In this article, you will gain some tips that would help you profit maximally in tennis betting.
Table of content:
- 1. Evaluate Stats and Form Clearly
- 2. Do Not Overvalue Head-To-Heads
- 3. Look to Capitalize On Pre-Match Drifters
- 4. Study Players’ Styles in A Pressure Situation
- 5. Identify Value by Opposing Fan Favourites
- 6. Go Against The Crowd
- 7. Don’t Get Behind
1. Evaluate Stats and Form Clearly
When choosing which player to bet on in a tennis match, form study is clearly essential, but you need to determine how far back is relevant. A player might have gone without a successful run in a certain tournament for five years, but at what point in time would this be unimportant? And if they’ve had a dip in form, you can try to comprehend why. For example, a key slide player who lost 6-0 6-1 in the previous match could have sustained an injury that is not publicly known. But if a player lost to an opponent at 5-1, and it later emerged that he or she was suffering from a flu-like illness, You’d probably be okay betting that player out next time. The market despises players in poor form, but there may be a compelling reason to do so, which means that there is often a good value to be had by betting an out-of-form player.
2. Do Not Overvalue Head-To-Heads
Head-to-head statistics are perhaps the toughest stats to interpret in tennis. Unquestionably, there’s something worth it, just how much is up for debate. Even then, head-to-heads are something the market is dead fixed on. You often find the scenario where two players played the week before, and the favorite was 1.4 in that meet. He wound up losing 2-0, and the next week he is unexpectedly now 1.7 to the same opponent. So the latest outcome was worth a little, but it probably wasn’t worth that much. Occurrences like this are not rare in tennis.
3. Look to Capitalize On Pre-Match Drifters
Often the odds of players are going to drift dramatically dead ball. It may be because there are fitness issues or whether they had a medical break in the recent round. Motivation is a different aspect. Many players have a strong aversion to them that they don’t even care for in smaller tournaments. If your player does not want to win, it’s a little of a challenge. Some players have admitted publicly that they had a flight booked right after the match and that they were just there to explore the city and have a few drinks.
4. Study Players’ Styles in A Pressure Situation
When exchanging in-play, it is important to analyze how players respond to particular circumstances since they can react differently when going back or forward. Some players have outstanding records of converted breakpoints and saved breakpoints – and vice versa. Indeed, the prime moments when a player breaks serve, or after they have broken themselves, create the greatest price fluctuations. Therefore, equipped with a strong knowledge of how players act in different circumstances is very vital for in-play trading.
Similarly, some players are faster off the blocks than others and may have a better first-time record than their rival or even the rest of their contemporaries in the competition. A totally reasonable strategy is to bet on a player who wins a decent chunk of first sets and then put a lay bet if he or she goes 1-0. Likewise, there are a lot of bottlers who are bad at losing matches from winning positions. The likes of Daniel Muñoz de la Nava and Thomaz Bellucci are really good at getting closer to the finish line, but they’re very bad at closing out the match. On the flip side, a player like Kei Nishikori has a remarkable record of deciding set record.
5. Identify Value by Opposing Fan Favourites
Markets support certain players, and they hate others. The best illustration of this was when Roger Federer faced Andy Murray in the 2015 Wimbledon semi-final. The Swiss was around 2.1 dead ball. However, if you had a big bet on Murray, you would end up getting it totally wrong as Federer blew the Scot 3-0. It’s going to happen sometimes. Yet Federer was the same market value in the final against Novak Djokovic because he had a wave of sentimental money for him. A BBC survey revealed that 75percent of viewers predicted he would win. So many bettors firmly backed Djokovic because almost even money about the Serb in the final was unbelievable (he beat Federer in four sets). That stands out as the most misleading tennis market ever seen. Ironically, it was the Wimbledon final with the most liquid market of the year.
6. Go Against The Crowd
Momentum is the main force of price fluctuations, and there are periods when momentum-based prices are too high or too low. Let’s assume you have a three-game match, and Player X has gone off at 1.9, won the first set, and lost the second set. What price is there to win the game? It’s definitely going to be bigger than 1.9, but is he meant to be the dog because he missed the second set? If he doesn’t have medical timeouts, I’d say that he should probably be a favorite. So you can always find value on a player who’s lost the second set and who’s now a much higher price than a dead ball.
Many people claim that women are much poorer leaders than men, possibly if you only look at service breaks because their service is not as good. So it’s a popular theory among tennis betting players to lay the leading player in the third set. However, if you practiced that strategy in every match, I don’t think you’d actually end up with a profit. The prevailing ‘muggish’ view is that you see more price volatility with women’s tennis, which might seem to be the case, but it’s not always the truth.
7. Don’t Get Behind
In tennis, a value can only exist for a few seconds, which means that fast TV pictures are completely necessary for in-play trading. All exchange and bookmaker streams are a few seconds away from live. Then there’s BT Sports and Sky Sports, while Eurosport is the slowest. In the meantime, HD channels are significantly slower than non-HD channels. The quickest available pictures are from highly-priced private live streams providers, which is what bookmakers use, but they are very expensive. While a smooth stream is a must, it’s never going to beat a man sitting in a row one court siding, which still exists, one hundred percent. You will find that liquidity thaws just as the player is about to serve, so everyone shuts down their bets out of paranoia of being strung up by the court siders.
