Strategy & Tips On Tournament Formats To Play Underdog Betting For All Sports
Have you ever wanted to know all about the Strategy & Tips on Tournament Formats to Play Underdog Betting For All Sports? It’s well known that bets on outsiders are always worthwhile when the underdog emerges as the winner in alleged David versus Goliath situations and beats an overpowering opponent against all odds. The successful betting slips of some bold weather quickly spread like wildfire on the Internet.
Sports betting friends like John Pryke have at least temporarily become real internet phenomena. In the run-up to the 2015/16 season, the British fan wagered £50 that his club, Leicester City, would become English champions. And, ultimately sold the bet to his provider a few game days before the end of the season for a high five-figure amount.
Whenever such a bet on an underdog is successful, the profit is usually really high. However, all those tipsters who have bet painfully high amounts in various markets and a wide variety of sports on outsiders. They’ve lost everything in the end quickly fall under the table. In the end, the bookies always win, even with astronomically high payouts.
Table of content:
- Strategy & Tips On Tournament Formats To Play Underdog Betting For All Sports
- Is betting on underdogs a chance toward luck?
- Outsider Betting Strategy – That You Should Consider
- The odds are as follows
- Questions to ask yourself
- Long-term profit by betting on underdogs – use these tournament formats
- Cup competitions in football
- Friendlies and test matches
- The first round of tennis
- A host of major tournaments
- Conclusion of the Strategy & Tips on Tournament Formats
Is betting on underdogs a chance toward luck?
In truth, Successful betting takes a lot more than just luck. It’s not about showing the right knack for the lucrative outsider tip at the right moment, but rather about regularly creating the right moments to place bets that bring a positive expected value.
If you have mastered bankroll management and always choose the right amount of your bets, so that you don’t get on a losing streak, you already have the perfect prerequisites for successful long-term betting.
This long-term success not only includes constant betting on the favorites but also betting on outsiders in certain constellations, we’ll be dealing with how to bet on the underdog.
Besides the brief repetition of the essential elemental requirements for submitting these tips, we also provide you with the tournament formats. In those formats, such bets are incredibly worthwhile.
Outsider Betting Strategy – That You Should Consider
Anyone who is toying with a bet on an underdog has to walk a fine line between three crucial cornerstones.
- First, you shouldn’t calculate too great chances for the underdog and thus not be blinded by unusually high odds.
- Second, the bet must not be avoided if the expected value is realistic.
- Lastly, you have to take into account that betting on underdogs is always a long-term investment.
Assuming you have a bet that only really works with a chance of 20%. But in these cases always offers a positive expected value, then you will lose 80 out of 100 bets you place. The profit from the 20 won bets shifts the balance to the credit side in the long term. I
It would be best if you internalized that the bet’s size is of fundamental importance when betting on the underdog. Therefore, we would like to briefly calculate the respective basic rules.
For example, let’s assume that you have a balance of 200 euros on your account. You have just stumbled upon a game in which the odds of the outsider’s victory are associated with a positive expected value. Let’s say team A is the big favorite and team B is the underdog.
The odds are as follows
- 1st-Tip 1 (team A): 1.20
- 2nd-Tip X (tie): 5.00
- 3rd-Tip 2 (Team B): 10.00
In the very first step, completely exclude the odds. Or it’s best to only look at them after you have included the injury status, any bans due to red cards, or direct comparison with the help of various data for the current form curve of the teams. Let’s say you come to the following distribution:
- Team A wins the game 75%.
- In about 15% of all cases, there is a draw.
- The remaining probability of occurrence for tip 2 is accordingly 10%.
In the next step, insert the quotas and calculate the expected value. Using this formula, the following results come out:
- Tip 1: If you bet ten euros, you lose one euro.
- X: With a stake of ten euros, there is even a loss of 2.50 euros.
- 2: If you bet ten euros, it would be five euros profit.
So although team B may be the blatant underdog, only tip 2 makes sense – at least at first glance. It is therefore essential to take a second look at such positive expected values.
Questions to ask yourself
- Why is the quota for team B in the double-digit range?
- Have my chances of occurrence for the results other than winning the favorites been too optimistic?
- Did I overlook something in my calculations? For example, a team’s tendency to play against the coach or be mentally already at the next match to allocate the reserves of strength?
- Do I have to adjust the probability of occurrence?
Suppose you answer “yes” to the last question at the latest. In that case, you should scroll up again, readjust the probabilities of occurrence. After that, you should recalculate the expected values until you are sure that these probabilities of occurrence make sense.
A tip on this. Always keep in mind that in football, for example, supposed super-teams such as Real Madrid, FC Barcelona, Bayern Munich, or Paris Saint-Germain in their national leagues only in exceptional cases at the end of the season more than 75% of all games in winning the championship. 75% represents an absolute top value that is rarely cracked.
Values such as 68% to a maximum of 72% of games won are more realistic for national champions. Transferred to the “David versus Goliath” constellation in football, for example, this also means that the 75% applied in our example for tip 1 is a reasonable value. Unless there are perhaps such blatant statistics as a head-to-head comparison,
But let’s stick with the numbers. Tip 2 results with a strongly positive expected value. So let’s choose the right bet when the bankroll is $200. The point here is to define how secure your bet is, which we have already made. It will pay off in 15% of all cases.
What does it all mean?
This means that if you place this tip, you’ll lose 85 times. With the 15 times, you win, you will end up in a plus. But because the probability has no memory, you have to choose the best size to cushion 85 lost bills at a time. If you bet ten euros every time, you might need a stake of 860 euros to win once.
The system of translating the probability of occurrence into so-called units has proven itself. One unit corresponds to 0.5% of your bankroll. With a 15% probability of the event, we accordingly have 1.5 units, i.e. 0.75% of your bankroll, as the precisely correct and reasonable amount of the stake.
The result is that this bet is to be played with a bankroll of 200 euros and a stake of 1.50 euros. And this is precisely where the great difficulty lies with outsider bets if your bankroll has not yet reached the four-digit range: It now requires a great deal of discipline to stick to these 1.50 euros and not the lure of big money to succumb and surrender ten times the stake.
Long-term profit by betting on underdogs – use these tournament formats
After all these, the next step is to find the tournament formats in which outsider bets are the most lucrative. Please note right at the beginning that according to strictly mathematical calculations, as we have just repeated step by step, a positive expected value can be found in every sport and every tournament format.
Nevertheless, some tournament formats are almost predestined for the underdog’s victory to be given one or the other percentage point in the probability of occurrence on top of it. Therefore, that positive expected values not only appear at first glance but also at the second. Keep your eyes open. Let’s highlight the following in four formats:
- Cup competitions in football
- Friendlies and test matches
- The first round of tennis
- A host of major tournaments
1. Cup competitions in football
Mostly in German football (DFB Pokal) and the English FA Cup or League Cup, there is the unique feature that a single duel decides which club will reach the next round. Suppose no decision has been made after 90 minutes. In that case, there is extra time (DFB Pokal) or immediate penalty shoot-out (League Cup in England).
In contrast, in the case of a draw in the FA Cup, a second leg is scheduled in the away team’s stadium. It’s already the case – The English clubs’ packed schedule is also fluffed up and is rarely in the interests of the clubs involved.
Such duels, in which only one game is about victory or defeat, progress or elimination, are made for betting on outsiders. It’s because, especially in the DFB Cup, where in the first round there is still the unique feature that the representatives from the Bundesliga compete against lower-class amateur clubs, every favorite has never made it past the opening match.
At some point, the most stringent time has seen top favorites clubs fall by the wayside in round one. And just two out of 18 teams make up 11%! Not to mention numerous other surprises. Even a seasoned second division team can increase the fifth division’s amateur club’s rate but still fail.
In short: the starting position here is almost predestined for almost all teams in the DFB Pokal for wild underdogs. Why? Quite simply. Although it takes “only” six wins in a row to win the German club cup, it’s tough to get through this tournament without losing. That’s why the average Bundesliga club neglects the competition.
Also, because the bonuses for reaching the next round are, on the one hand, too low to make it enjoyable, conversely, the Bundesliga team almost exclusively only gets away games in the first two rounds.
The chances of overall victory increase drastically.
This means that additional travel stress interrupts the focus on the league operations. On the other hand, in the end, there are even all kinds of expenses for this trip, and no income from ticket sales can be booked. The attractiveness is, therefore, limited before the chances of overall victory increase drastically.
But it is different for the outsider. It’s often the final game of the year for teams from lesser leagues. It’s when a top team from the top-side or second division is a guest. It boosts motivation and adapts the use accordingly. A thankless situation for the professional team, which also has no second leg in which any mistakes can be ironed out.
Again, the qualification mode also plays a role here. To qualify for the DFB Pokal, all underdogs had to win an association cup in the preseason and have only just proven that they can assert themselves in a knockout tournament.
In the end, of course, you cannot avoid calculating the probability of occurrence and expected values in every game – as shown. Positive expected values can be found far more often in the cup. It writes its laws, which you should also use to bet on outsiders.
2. Friendlies and test matches
In friendly games, valid data (e.g., head-to-head comparison or form from the last x games) takes a back seat and other essential aspects. Otherwise, less relevant points, such as the date of the schedule, the climate, the situation in which the teams are currently stuck, or the lawn’s condition must be taken into account.
A friendly game can often be the “game of the year” from the outsider’s perspective, which provides additional motivation. Test matches are also usually scheduled when, as the word suggests,- something needs to be “tested” (for example, new players or a new system. If this only applies to one side, the other side could have an advantage.
Suppose a professional team bridges an international break, for example. And during it, almost all the regulars are with their national teams. So, this can speak against an underdog tip, as the second and third garrison probably waited weeks, if not months, for the chance to get in touch with the coach to prove the absence of the stars would not be missed and to recommend him for future tasks.
3. The first round of tennis
Especially in tennis, hardly any professional from the ATP or WTA is spared. Not surprisingly failing at least one tournament in round one. This is particularly noteworthy. It’s because the tennis tournaments’ system is designed so that the top stars start in the seeding list and initially start against outsiders. That’s for the big names (favorites) to remain in the coming rounds and excitement is guaranteed.
Nevertheless, there are many logical reasons that, with the right instinct, can be found in advance for lucrative underdog bets.
Usual Steps
A. Firstly, the top tennis stars often have to announce their participation in the tournaments months in advance. It’s because they are actively promoted there. Special additional clauses usually accompany this for the attendance fees.
Now a professional at ATP or WTA rarely plays less than 50 competitive games a year. That includes the season paused between the beginning of November and the end of December. 50 games over 10 months, with the top 10 players having a good 30 more games in their accounts at the end. This sometimes results in intervals of an average of one game every two to three days.
Added to this are the rapid changes in time zones and long journeys. There were just 20 hours between the two games. Although this example is particularly extreme, such phases in the year are no exception. It’s when departure is on Sunday evening in country X and those on Monday evening or Tuesday morning. It would be ideal in an entirely different Time zone, the next match is due.
Sometimes, against an incredibly ambitious and motivated outsider, the performance cannot be retrieved, especially in these treacherous first rounds. And, also, especially since a first-round break always means that the player then receives at least five days to regenerate.
B. Secondly, how a professional from ATP / WTA has put away with the latest trips, how he/she digested the previous tournament, or how things are in their current form. It’s usually only revealed in the second or third match of the next game.
The stars in round 1 are accordingly vulnerable
Especially in round one, the stars are accordingly vulnerable. So in the very first step makes the favorite tip riskier than ever in the entire tournament. It credits the underdog in the second step with the percentage points in the probability of occurrence that must be deducted from the favorite, from which a positive one Expected value can arise in the first place.
C. Usually, the outsider is not always really the underdog. Take US Open 2017 winner Sloane Stephens. The American started far from the top 100 of the WTA world rankings with Protected Ranking, as she had returned from a lengthy injury break. In the first rounds – and even at the very end of the grand finale – she was almost always the underdog among the bookmakers – sometimes more and sometimes less lucrative.
D. The favorites’ pressure is particularly significant, while the underdogs can only win against the top stars in the end. And here too, at the end – analogous to the cup competition in soccer in Germany and England, for example – a single match decides who will advance.
That’s why professional sports bettors almost always look closely at the tennis tournaments around the globe on Mondays and Tuesdays after the end of the soccer game days in the national leagues when the first rounds are pending, and sometimes spots open up where the outsider bets are associated with an attractive expected value.
4. Host of major tournaments
Finally, it’s (almost) always attractive to bet on an underdog when it comes to the host in a major tournament. Just think of how Qatar made it to runner-up in the men’s handball world championship in 2015.
Admittedly with bought players who were ready to take Qatar’s citizenship without further ado. But with a series of impressive victories in which you went into the match as an underdog.
There are also a few exciting examples recently. For example, twice in a row, at the FIFA Club World Cup, where the six titleholders of the essential continental titles for club teams, sorted by association, collide at the end of the year.
These clubs are always expanded to include a team from the host country, which did not win a significant title in the host year, but is intended to give local fans additional incentives.
And in both 2016 and 2017, that local team came surprisingly far. While in 2016, the Kashima Antlers from Japan only lost in the final after extra-time against Champions League winners Real Madrid, Los Blancos from Spain faced al-Jazira Club in the semifinals this year.
It would help if you never underestimated that even the smallest countries can gain a few percentage points of motivation and commitment at a tournament in their own country.
On the one hand, this is enough to get a few extra percent in some constellations against enormous favorites for the probability of victory. On the other hand, it is sometimes for massive sensations.
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Conclusion of the Strategy & Tips on Tournament Formats
We hope you liked this article about the Strategy & Tips on Tournament Formats. It will definitely help you earn more money! See Also: Odds Comparison – How Each Bookmaker Calculate Their Odds
