Statistical Probability of a Draw Depending on the League
Do You want to know all about the Statistical Probability of a Draw? First of all, most football teams in leagues don’t have intentions of settling for a draw. This is simply because leagues award a single point for draws and three points for winning a match.
As we all know every football team want to get more points to attain higher positions on the league table. However, this zeal to gain three points doesn’t stop drawing from happening because teams both small teams and favorite teams find it hard to score in some matches. In this article, we would be discussing how to predict matches that would end in a draw.
How to place a bet on the draw market?
Draw as a betting market is not usually patronized because most bettors believe a match between a favorite team and a small team shouldn’t end in a draw but in favor of a favorite team. Rough statistics were carried out on various leagues including; The English Premier League, Champions League, The European Premier League, German Bundesliga, and the Italian Serie A.
The statistics showed that the Bundesliga had the highest amount of draws in 2019/2020, with over 30% of the total matches played in the league ending in a draw. This shows how competitive the league is and these are the kind of leagues you should look out for as a bettor in search of draw odds. Speaking of draw odds, you should also be aware that odds for draws are huge, and they fall within the range of 3-4odds.
Let’s look at a method of predicting matches that would end in a draw. In draw prediction, the first step is to compare numerous leagues based on how frequent draw occurs in the leagues.
After comparison, you’d notice that the number of draws varies with leagues. For instance, in the German’s Bundesliga ( women’s category), around every 6.6th match end in a draw, while in the German Bundesliga men division, every 2.77 match ends in a draw.
From this analysis, one could easily decipher that betting on the draw market in these leagues gives you about 15-20% profit as the odds are always >3. It’s advisable not to conclude with the draw analysis in some cases. You should also take a look at the winning analysis. If you notice that over 1.2th games end in a win then you should consider going for the double chance market.
The Rear but Value Bet In Sports: Betting on Football Draws & Wins
What is the double chance market?
For you to understand this market, you need to understand that there are three outcomes for any football game. These outcomes include;
- Home team winning the game
- Away team winning the game
- A draw
Double chance basically gives the bettor two chances out of these three to win the bet. How? Bettors definitely have favorite teams but sometimes, bettors doubt their team’s credibility in some matches and are worried about the prospect of a draw. This market gives them the opportunity to place a bet that would be a win if their favorite team wins or the match ends in a draw. The odds for this market are small though (<1.3 odds).
A benefit of betting on the draw market is that the profit is huge if won because the bookmarkers don’t have a choice but to allow the odds to remain >3 before the match commences. However, it also has its disadvantage; league comparison takes a long time, and it’s very hectic to imagine having to compare about 20 leagues. We hope you liked this article about Statistical Probability of a Draw!
