sports betting

Sports Betting Strategy – Single Hedge Betting System

January 12, 2021

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Single Hedge Betting System

In this article, we would be discussing the Single Hedge Betting Betting System which was devised by Rene. Advice- as a punter, you should never place a bet on more than one game, why is this so?

In a game of football, there are three possibilities; home to win (1), away to win(2), and draw(X). Supposing a bettor goes for the draw (X) option, the possibility of him winning the game is ⅓ because the odds for that option are relatively high and so is the risk too.

Professional Betting Strategy With Single Bets

Table of content:

Single Hedge Betting System
How then can one reduce the risk with this strategy?
Why you shouldn’t stake on several games (combination bets)
Conclusion – Single Hedge Betting System

How then can one reduce the risk with this strategy?

If the football match is between teams that are equally strong, then the strategy compels you to bet on two options; the home to win (1) and draw (X) markets although you can also bet on the away to win (2) option, the strategy doesn’t succumb to this.

While selecting the markets make sure you pay attention to the odds’ ratio in order to get a higher profit. Following the strategy of placing a bet on the two options, increases your chance of winning to ⅔.

Sports Betting Strategy: Bet With Low Risk

Take for example a game between Slovenia and Norway given the tips of Away to win(2)- 2.70 and draw (X)- 3.00, your first move as a punter is to calculate the ratio between the two odds, that is, 3/2.7= 1.111+1= 2.111 you should take note that for weaker odds, you have to bet more to gain more and the ratio of the two tips should be close as possible.

This also increases your profit margin. In this case, your ratio is perfect. You then proceed to stake 100 EUR, you split the stake as follows 100/2.111, the larger portion of this ration should be placed on the (X) option because it has the higher odd, 47.37 EUR is placed on (X) tip and the rest is placed on tip 2 (2). Here is how profit is calculated;

● For tip (X)- 100/2.11(odds ratio) * 3(betting odds)= 142.11 your initial stake subtracted from this result gives you your profit. That’s, 142.11 – 100= 42.11EUR profit for the X tip

● For tip (2)- just as said earlier on the stake on this option has to be more because the odds are smaller. 100/2.111=47.37 * 1.111= a total stake of 52.63 EUR on tip 2. After the subtraction, a profit of 42.11 EUR is expected from the market.

From this analysis, one can deduce that the total stake still sums up to 100EUR, that is, stake 1 + stake 2= 47.37 + 52.63= 100EUR. In case the calculation of the odds was somehow confusing, the formula below summarizes it;

Higher odds/ smaller odds = stake for smaller odds

Why you shouldn’t stake on several games (combination bets)

Let’s assume you decide to use these odds’ calculation methods for 5 different games in a day. Just as we know a game has a probability of ⅔ of 3 possibilities, but in the case we’ve 5 different games meaning possibilities equals 3^5= 243 ( have it in mind that each game has 3 main possibilities- W1, W2, and X) however, in the case of 5 games, you don’t have ⅔ probability because there are 5 games and two options per game simply mean 2^5= 32 options.

Following your chances of winning the probability of winning all 5 games is 32/243 which is options/ possibilities. This is only a 13.17% chance of winning! Obviously combining 5 games is very risky.

Let’s try combining 2 games. For two different games, the number of options would be 2^2= 4, and the number of possibilities would be 3^2=9, giving a probability of 4/9 for a combination of two games and a 44.44% chance of winning this is better when compared to the 5 games combination. ⅔ probability of a single game is still the best bet and a good hedge.