Roulette Odds and Probability
Let’s first look at the basics of how to play roulette. Before every spin, one can place as many bets as you like on the roulette table. Each of these bets covers one or more of the numbered pockets on the roulette wheel and comes with its own odds of winning. In this article we will explain to you Roulette Odds and Probability!
Roulette table with wheel
When the croupier spins the ball around the wheel, it will eventually fall into one of these pockets. The number and color of that pocket will determine which bets win on that spin.
How much is a roulette chip worth? The most common value for a roulette chip in an American casino is one dollar. However, this amount can change depending on how much you buy-in at the table.
When you purchase your chips, your croupier will set a value that leaves you with a reasonable amount of chips to play with: buy-in for $100 and you’ll get dollar chips; start with $10,000 on the table and each chip might be worth $100.
Table of content:
- Roulette Odds and Probability
- Roulette Winning Chances
- Inside and Outside Bets
- Called Bets
- Fixed bets
- Variable bets
Roulette Winning Chances
Unlike classic casino games, like blackjack or poker where individual actions can significantly change the outcome, roulette is a game of pure chance where the outcome is completely random.
It is a game where each bet has a specific mathematical probability of winning and those odds are affected by the type of the roulette you are playing and its additional rules. Single-zero roulette games, like European roulette, have better odds for the player than American roulette because the wheel has an extra slot: the green 00.
So, what is probability and is there a difference between the true odds in roulette and the casino odds offered to players? The probability is the likelihood of any given outcome compared to all outcomes that are possible.
Odds are used to describe the chance of an event occurring, but the number of ways it can occur is compared to the number of ways it cannot occur.
Let’s look at the odds for the most commonly placed bet in roulette: red/black. If we place our chips on red, the probability would be 18 out of 37, while the odds would be 19:18 against us because there would be 19 ways to lose against 18 ways to win.
Clearly, the payout does not correspond to the true odds of roulette bets. This advantage of the casino over the players is called the house edge.
Inside and Outside Bets
In Roulette Odds and Probability, there are two main groups of bets: Outside Bets and Inside Bets. The names are derived from the bet positions on the layout of the table. Outside bets have higher chances of winning, but much smaller payouts. Inside bets have less probability of winning, but considerably bigger payouts.
Outside Bets
The most popular outside bets are known as ‘even money’ bets because they cover close to half of the possible outcomes. All the even bets in roulette are: red or black, even or odd, 1-18 or 19-36. All of those bets have a chance of winning close to 50%. Due to the high probability of those bets, the payout is 1:1.
The other outside bets are Column and Dozen, both covering 12 numbers on the table. This is roughly a third of all possible outcomes. You can bet on the first, second, or third dozens of numbers (1-12, 13-24, 25-36), or on the first, second, or third column.
The winning odds are 32.43% in European Roulette and 31.58% in the American version. The payout for Column and Dozen: 2:1.
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Inside Bets
Inside bets include betting on a single number, or on a small group of them. There are different ways to group your numbers, but they are all related to the numbers’ position on the table.
- Straight : betting on one specific number. This bet has the lowest winning probability and the highest payout: 35:1.
- Split: betting on two numbers out of 37, but on one condition: the numbers you choose must be neighbours on the table. The payout: 17:1.
- Street: a three-number bet on a row of numbers. The payout: 11:1.
- Corner: betting on four numbers forming a square on the table. The pay out: 8:1.
- Double Street: betting on two rows of numbers, i.e. 6 numbers. The payout: 5:1.
- Basket (only in American roulette): betting on zero, double zero, 1, 2 and 3. The payout: 6:1.
Called Bets
Also known as ‘announced’, called bets are exclusive to European/French Roulette and their numbers are combined according to the positions on the roulette wheel, not the table.
French roulette wheel
There are two types, fixed and variable called bets.
Fixed bets
- Voisins du Zero,: Neighbours of Zero: a bet that covers 17 numbers on the wheel, all close to the green zero. At least 9 chips are needed to cover all those numbers and the odds of this bet are 45.9%.
- Tiers du Cylindre, Thirds of the Wheel: the 12 numbers situated directly across from the Neighbours of Zero. The probability: 32.4%.
- Jeu Zero, Zero Game: a smaller version of the Neighbours of Zero, covering only 7 numbers close to the green zero slot. The odds: 18.9%.
- Orphelins, The Orphans: the bet covers the numbers not mentioned in the called bets so far. Winning chance: 21.6%.
Variable bets – Roulette Odds and Probability
- The neighbours: betting on 5 neighbouring numbers. The odds: 13.5%.
- The finals: betting on the last digit. Depending on the numbers, the probability varies between 8.1% and 10.8%.
- Full Completes: a true maximum bet on a single number.
Knowledge Is Power
This just about covers the statistical probabilities and odds of all possible bets you can place on roulette. Generally speaking, roulette tables are fair. Casinos have a mathematical advantage and don’t need to cheat.
However, there have been plenty of cases where biased wheels have made some numbers appear more often than others. Keep in mind that whatever you are doing, the house edge will always be against you. Know when to stop and don’t forget to have fun. Good luck!
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