Long-term betting strategy explained- Outright bet and 1-3-2-6 system
Outright betting, also regarded as futures betting, offers bettors a variety of markets to choose from. What exactly is outright betting? When is long-term betting profitable? How can you make unequivocal betting predictions? Continue reading to find out.
What is an outright bet?
An outright bet is a wager placed on the outcome of an entire competition or league rather than a single wager on a single game or event.
Bettors can stake an outright bet before the competition begins, but markets are frequently open during the competition.
When does long-term betting offer value?
Long-term outright bets are valuable for locking in value on teams whose odds fluctuate throughout the season. As an example, a bettor may believe that Barcelona’s strength is underappreciated by betting markets. If this were the case, the market would correct relatively quickly from match to match.
By betting on Barcelona to win the Champions League outright rather than betting on each match, the bettor secures value that would otherwise be lost. This is not to say that outrights are always a good investment. It is not uncommon to find better odds on individual events than on the outright. One extreme example is a 101.0 bet on Dustin Johnson to complete a clean sweep of the golf majors (after winning the 2020 Masters). This price was chosen even though some sportsbooks had Johnson at 11.00 to win the PGA Championship on his own.
If this indicates the odds, Johnson will be priced at the next two major events. The bettor could achieve odds in the 1300.00 range by simply rolling over winnings into the outright for each event, a payout 13 times greater than taking the future on the clean sweep. That doesn’t even take into account the possibility of Woods missing an event due to injury.
When betting on more traditional outright markets, the effect is similar but more difficult to calculate. Could the bettor get better odds by betting on individual events with his bankroll?
Another factor to consider is the opportunity cost. A profitable bettor, for example, will be able to use his bankroll more effectively throughout a Premier League season than simply betting on the outright winner at the start of the season.
Hedging an outright bet
It is generally possible to hedge an outright bet, but it may not always be simple. In competitions with only two competitors or markets with a “not to win” selection, it is as simple as hedging a normal bet, albeit over a longer period.
Hedging becomes more difficult when multiple selections are possible winners of the event or when the odds on the selection are so substantial that large sums are needed to hedge the bet. In this case, bettors should consider their exit options before placing the bet.
Hedging usually comes at a cost, whether it’s the high margin on a Cashout, commission, or a bookmaker’s margin for the second time. In the long run, it is most likely better to let the bet run its course.
Making outright betting predictions
When forecasting an outright market, a bettor should look for a selection that will provide value in addition to what the bettor can do with the money in the meantime.
Betting on outrights may be one of the more realistic methods of locating value bets. This is due to the opportunity cost of placing a long-term outright bet. Bettors who can consistently find positive expected value bets would be foolish to tie up their bankroll for an extended period, potentially making the market less efficient due to signaling delays.
This can trigger a lag in the odds movement that would not otherwise exist. For example, in the summer of 2017, Juventus could be backed as high as 31.00 in the Champions League outright market.
Although the odds on PSG signing two superstar players (Douglas Costa and Blaise Matuidi) had shrunk significantly, these odds remained available. The developments surrounding their transfers should have logically followed through to Juventus’ outright odds, as the purchase of such players would boost their Champions League chances. However, it took some time for the market to adjust, and by the end of the summer, Juventus were available at the highest price of 11.00.
Soft & Sharp Bookmakers
As the name suggests, Sharps are bookmakers who have a proven track record of determining the True Probability of an outcome. These bookmakers have quick-moving odds that closely resemble true odds; disappointing news for value seekers!
We want to find ‘soft’ bookmakers who alter their odds slowly and appeal to casuals as bettors. Softs typically take longer than sharps to change their odds, and as a result, there is a greater chance of finding value. Because most bookmakers prefer non-professional players, they are typically ‘soft,’ but they do not allow experts to bet for long before restrictions apply.
Value Betting Strategy – Analysis of the Event
While it is undeniably true that you can make money by simply following odds data and looking for ‘value,’ it would behoove you to learn more about your chosen sport. This is exactly what ‘sharp’ punters do to try to beat ‘sharp’ bookmakers.
A savvy bettor will quickly profit from ‘soft,’ promotion-driven bookies but will also quickly be restricted. Finally, rather than Return on Investment, it is all about Return on Capital. If you are limited to a couple of pounds per bet, your ability to earn a decent passive side income is greatly reduced.
While ‘sharp’ bookmakers will not give you as much of an advantage, they will be far less likely to restrict or ban you. Pinnacle’s head of trading, Marco Blume, stated that by not prohibiting professionals, they are “hiring” them in a sense. As a result, Pinnacle no longer requires in-house statisticians. As a result, if you are a ‘sharp’ bettor, you can win from a ‘sharp’ bookie such as Pinnacle without fear of restriction.
The 1-3-2-6 system
The 1-3-2-6 system is similar to a Paroli, which is another positive progression betting system. Both involve increased stakes after a win and a cycle of bets that ends at a fixed point. The only real distinction is the betting sequence.
There aren’t any easier to grasp systems than 1-3-2-6, and its simplicity appeals to a wide range of players. Several other advantages contribute to its popularity.
Of course, as with any betting system, there are drawbacks. Below, we look at the positive and negative aspects of the 1-3-2-6 and the details and how it is used.
Use of the 1-3-2-6 system
The 1-3-2-6, like many other betting systems, was designed for bets that payout an even sum, such as red-black bets in roulette. It is commonly used at the roulette table and in other casino games such as baccarat, dice games, and blackjack. It doesn’t matter what you use it for as long as you’re working with even numbers.
As previously stated, this is a very simple system. All you have to do is change your bets according to a few simple rules. First and foremost, you must decide the value of your betting unit. As a general rule, once you’ve determined how much you’re willing to lose in a single session, your betting unit should be between 2% and 5% of that amount.
