Live Betting After The First Goal
Live betting is an integral part of sports betting because it enables tipsters to immerse themselves in action. Football tidbits like Real Madrid versus Manchester City or FC Barcelona versus Juventus Turin aren’t available every matchday. And not every game with the label “delicacies” on it in the run-up does what it promised.
In this article, we’ll deal with football games where the first goal has just been scored. This is a crucial point in every game. The basic betting behavior in live betting must be adjusted.
Table of content:
- Live Betting After The First Goal
- What to consider while betting on live?
- What the first goal in soccer usually changes in live betting
- Which bets to focus on and which to avoid
- Depending on the opponents ‘ Offensives and defenses’
What to consider while betting on live?
Logically, there is also a lot to consider with live betting. However, depending on the tipster’s predisposition, this can quickly be a disadvantage. It’s due to the distance to the action is missing. And lack of distance, in turn, ensures that some decisions are made emotionally and not mathematically-rational.
Be it that you place a live bet prematurely without having calculated the associated expected values in detail. Or that you have deviated from the correct amount calculated depending on your bankroll.
Also, have in mind that, in the “worst-case” you have “Tilt” with a live bet, that is, place a bet with far too high stakes to compensate for the loss from a previously issued ticket that has lost what part of the daily bread of a professional sports bettor is.
What the first goal in soccer usually changes in live betting
For example, in handball, a team rarely scores less than ten goals per game. A double-digit number of goals is typical, but goals are instead in short supply in football. The most typical results are 1: 1, 1: 0, and 2: 1.
So, to put it casually, there is absolutely no lasting change on the other game (and thus also on the live bets) in handball. Especially which team will score the first goal. A goal in football is a far more decisive result, which almost always turns everything upside down.
Rough analyses of the major European leagues show that the team that scores the first goal later also leaves the field as the winner in about 7 out of 10 games. And that is a significant value. In the case of a pre-bet, average distribution of 50% on the home team’s victory and 25% on a draw. And, also, a win of the away team applies in the same leagues.
What usually changes the first goal in soccer live betting is the following. It sharpens the role of favorites and uses such percentages of the winning chances of the teams involved to create betting odds that have a negative expected value. It’s because this is the only way for providers to maximize their profit in the long run. So let’s take a look at the various live bets and their playability together.
Which bets to focus on and which to avoid
The norms among football bets are certainly when a favorite takes the lead against an outsider. The odd for the underdog skyrockets and the rate for the favorite is falling. Many tipsters now tend to jump on the bandwagon. It’s like that especially when the favorite is still playing at home – to bet high amounts for odds between 1.01 and 1.08. And that is precisely a colossal mistake! Because to win a few more euros, you have to get in here with at least 100 euros.
Have a rethink and avoid situations in which you would have to risk a lot of money with considerable risk ( talking of at least 20%) to gain little. Conversely, whenever a favorite takes the lead, a calculation is indicated. Whether the outsider’s tip might not bring a sufficiently positive expected value.
Top teams turn more than 10% of the games in which they fell behind into a victory, and even the weak teams still have around 5%, while the average teams around 8%lie. Assuming Bayern takes a 1-0 lead against a team like Freiburg, you have to give the underdog a few percentage points even here.
So that the 5%, which may be set 1-2 percentage points too high in this fictitious example, have a positive expected value, the odds on Freiburg’s victory should now be at least 21.00. However, we have a very narrow limit at which you would have to be too sure about this 5%.
Simultaneously, you must note that you need excellent bankroll management for this type of outsider bet, accompanied by a very positive expected value. After all, you are playing 100 such live bets here. 95 of which will lose at the end, whereby the profit from the five winning tips is sufficient to cause a plus at the end minus all losses and bets.
Conversely, you can also calculate whether the outsider will get the result over time. Should he have taken the lead against the favorites? The odds are very quickly the same for both sides, provided enough time left on the clock.
Depending on the opponents ‘ Offensives and defenses’
Furthermore, it always depends on the opponents’ offensives and defenses. A team like Atlético Madrid is far less likely to give up a 1-0 lead. The play style hardly allows for goals to be conceded, while in the Premier League, for example, Manchester City is at the forefront of both goals scored and goals conceded.
However, they have their defensive problems a little better under control in the current season. Again, with such background knowledge, the opponent’s percentage can be corrected better if the said teams have taken the lead.
Finally, cup games matches in the hot phase of the season (championship battle and relegation battle). European competitions (especially in the knockout phase) must always be assessed differently.
If, for example, the away team leads 1-0 in the Champions League, it has an entirely different effect, because the home team knows on the one hand that it must now absolutely achieve a low draw or ideally win to have a good chance for the second leg.
See Also: Strategy to Bet on Late Goals
