Home advantage affects match results. Understanding this is the key to finding value in betting and attaining greater heights in sports betting. The home team advantage is one of the major things you need to consider when betting on events. In this article, we will be discussing the home advantage and factors that affect the home advantage.
Table of content:
Analyzing The Home Advantage
- Analyzing The Home Advantage
- Calculating The Home Advantage
- Factors That Influence The Home Advantage
- Conclusion
Statistically speaking, clubs across the world tend to perform best when they play at home. However, the efficiency of a club playing at home varies from sport to sports, and sometimes referee to referee. The home advantage can be quantified and according to research, football is considered the sport with the largest home advantage. Below is a 2018/2019 Leagues result statistics proving the home advantage;
- 607 home goals
- 457 away goals
- 49.2% home wins
- 28.7% away wins
- 22.1% draw
This happens almost every year when home clubs win more games and score more goals than away clubs. How then can you work out the home advantage in match-ups, and how can you apply this advantage to your sports betting?
Calculating The Home Advantage
There are two methods you could use to calculate the home advantage in sports generally. The first method is by weighing up the home team’s win/loss ratio and the second method is by comparing the goals, and points the home team has either scored or conceded.
The first method- using win/loss ratio
This is best explained using an example. Let’s use a League result as an example. Supposing the total number of wins, draws, and losses for the home section of a league table are as follows; 179 wins, 86 draws, and 115 losses. To calculate the home win percentage, the first thing you need to do is add up the number of wins and losses then divide the sum by 2. That is,
(179 + 115)/2 = 147
“147” is the expected number of matches the home team should win supposing home advantage wasn’t involved. Now divide the total number of wins in the home section by 147 (expected number of wins without home advantage), that is, (179/147)=1.22. this result means that in that particular league, the home teams dominated the away teams by 22%.
The Second method- by comparing home goals
This method has to do with scores for and against the home team. Knowing how to calculate home advantage using this method helps a lot in some betting markets e.g The Asian handicap. Knowing each team’s home and away stats before betting is very important. The stats would let you know if the bet actually has value.
For example, let’s look at Real Sociedad using the La Liga table 2014-15 as a reference. From the stats that year, we noticed that Real Sociedad scored 49 goals on home soil and conceded only 10 goals. To calculate Real Sociedad’s home advantage using this information, you can use the formula; (no of goals scored at home- no of goals conceded at home)/ games played. That is; (49-10)/19= 2.05
This means that Real Sociedad held a two-goal advantage whenever they played at home.
Having discussed the home advantage and its application in betting, let’s talk a walk through the factors that could influence the home advantage.
Factors That Influence The Home Advantage
The home advantage can be influenced by a number of factors. They include;
➢ Loud crowds
Average fans aren’t as vocal as home supporters in some cases. Teams that have a huge number of home fans are always very difficult to beat than other teams with more average fans. As a bettor, you should take this factor into consideration while betting. Teams are always stronger when they’ve more home fans regardless of their form. Take Liverpool in 2013 for example, despite finishing the league sixth, their home fans made sure they never lost more than four games at Anfield throughout the league.
➢ Stadium size
Based on statistics and research, professionals found out that for every 10,000 home fans at a football match, the home team’s advantage increases by 10%. This means that clubs with a larger stadium capacity to accommodate as many fans tend to have a higher advantage than clubs that host games at smaller venues.
➢ Playing condition
Some sports are uniform in dimensions and playing area. Sports like ice hockey and basketball. However, this uniformity isn’t always the case in all sports. Some sports like cricket are known for the diversity of their playing area. The condition of the playing area varies with countries and venues. For example, the flat bowls of one country and the grassy wicket of another country provide different levels of comfort for the teams playing on them.
➢ Referees and umpires
Not that the referees are crooked, statistics show that referees and umpires tend to make decisions against the away team. Noisy home crowds most times alter the decisions of inexperienced referees. This factor is so rampant that a report was released in 2011 saying that the decision of referees and umpires is the main cause of increased home advantage in sports.
➢ Climate and geography
Sports trips aren’t always the same. Some are gruelling than others. This gruel is sometimes due to the condition of the weather or how long the journey is. Either one of these factors can favour the home side. Imagine a team hosting another team that’s more than 2,000 km away. The distance alone would have effects on the players.
Conclusion
As a bettor, getting yourself familiar with the home advantage a team might have before a game starts gives you an upper hand in betting. Just as said earlier, knowing how to go about the calculation also keeps you informed about some betting markets upfront.
