Betting Tips: Backing The Big Favourites In Sports Betting
Backing the favourite is seen as a profitable strategy among professional bettors in the sports betting industry. This strategy is very straightforward and according to statistics, it’s the most widely used strategy in the sports betting industry. The pros of this strategy are what sports bettors focus on. However, can one really earn huge from this strategy, and if backing the favourite was that easy, why isn’t everyone doing it? Why only the majority?
Flaws Associated With Backing The Big Favourites
Just like other sports betting strategies, banking on favourites also has its own cons. These flaws are based on logic. Favourite teams just as we all know are expected to win matches more often than not. That’s precisely why they are tagged as favourites. It’s therefore only smart to think that banking on them will yield huge profits in the long run.
The major flaw of this strategy is that the betting odds for the favourite to win market are very low. What this means is that bettors using this strategy don’t always win much relative to their stakes. This wouldn’t have been considered a flaw if favourites win all the time, but we all know anything can happen in a game of soccer. The favourite team will not always come out victorious and that’s why the real question is; do these favourite teams win enough to make placing stakes on favourites profitable? The term “big favourite” is too vague and this explains why the question above might prove difficult to answer.
This brings us to another flaw. How do we identify a favourite? What really makes up a favourite? When it comes to identifying a favourite, different bettors have different theories. This means backing the favourite is actually open to interpretation. This feature is good because the best strategies are those that give out a general guideline and also give room for making informed decisions. Strategies with precise guidelines are not the best.
How often do big favourites win? Let’s have a deep look into the win rate of favourites.
Analyzing Win Rates Of Favorites In Sports Betting
Just as we discussed earlier, the fact that big favourites win often is what makes banking on them appealing. To successfully access this strategy, we’ve to determine how frequently big favourites win. To properly analyze the win rate, let’s make use of real statistics of the English Premier League which is one of the most popular soccer leagues in the world that attracts lots of betting interests. Below are the win percentages of the top three teams in the English Premier League for three consecutive seasons.
2011/2012- EPL season
Finishing Position Win percentages
1st 71%
2nd 68%
3rd 65%
2012/2013- EPL season
Finishing Position Win percentages
1st 74%
2nd 60%
3rd 58%
2013/2014- EPL season
Finishing Position Win percentages
1st 74%
2nd 74%
3rd 55%
From the statistics above, the average win rate for the top 3 big favourites is 67%. This means the favourites won 67% of the time across the three English Premier League seasons. If as a bettor, you had backed these favourites during this period, you would have won nothing less than 67% of your total stakes.
Don’t see this win rate as successful just yet. This data is actually far from being conclusive considering the sample size. Recall that only 3 seasons were calculated, there is every possibility that the next 3 seasons might not be as good. Asides from the sample size, also recall that we dealt with just one type of league. Nevertheless, these statistics and average win rate go some way to proving favourites betting allows you to win a higher percentage of your total stakes. The best type of bettors to adequately implement this sports betting strategy is the recreational bettors. These kinds of bettors are always on the look for strategies that are straightforward and can assure frequent wins. This is exactly what favourite betting is all about.
However, sports bettors with the sole aim of making money want more than just a couple of data assumptions.
They understand that value matters a lot in betting. Considering win rates from statistics alone reveals nothing about the value of betting and this is why we also have to consider odds.
Optimizing Backing The Big Favourites Strategy In Sports Betting
We already discussed the primary advantage and disadvantage of favourite betting, showing that you can earn huge wins if the favourite team has a high win rate. We also made it clear that the low odds that come with favourite betting markets will not be sufficient to make up for lost wager if the win rate of the favourite team is average. However, if this strategy is interpreted correctly, one will not suffer any loss implementing it.
Established already is the fact that the biggest pro and cons of this strategy are the potential for a high win rate and the low odds that come with the favourite betting markets respectively. Therefore, to get the best out of this strategy, you will need to focus on two pretty obvious things;
- Increasing the win rate
- Increasing the average odds
These two factors look entirely logical. Staking on a favourite with a high win rate will help overcome the negative effect of reduced odds and help yield huge profits in the long run. Another way of increasing the win rate is by placing stakes on favourites that are home. Favourite teams get extra motivation when they play matches at home. This extra motivation helps increase their chances of winning. More wins yield an increased win rate.
You can also increase the average odds by looking out for favourite markets with higher odds. If you can successfully increase the win rate and average odds of your favourite bets, you will definitely realize huge earnings in sports betting.
