Betting strategy: Betting on draw, the factors to put into considerations

For every sporting event, there are three possible outcomes. The teams can either win, lose or have a draw. Betting on draw, as the name suggests, simply means betting that the outcome of a sporting event will be a draw. Usually, a lot of bookmakers are biased when setting odds, which makes betting on draw an unpopular strategy. In 3-way bets, having a draw as the final outcome of an event has been very uncommon since one team is usually expected to win, especially if they are favorites. This makes betting on draw seem a bit risky, however, there are a lot of opportunities the strategy offers and we are here to explain them to you.

To start with, we would like to purge you of the opinion that winning a wager placed on draw is mostly by luck. You can predict if the result of an event will be a draw with sound knowledge of draw betting strategy and maximize profit with it. All you have to do is follow the guidelines, analyze the game and be disciplined. The likelihood of a draw result in football is higher than in any other sporting event and the odds are usually very high. We’re confident that after going through this article, you’ll understand how to bet on draw and use it to your advantage.

Probabilities and Statistics of draws

Since there are three possible outcomes in football, the probability of getting a draw is 33.33%. If the odds are set above 3, the bet becomes profitable for the gamers. Using the last three football seasons, we observed how often football teams end up with a draw and that the statistics change yearly and there isn’t a regular pattern. In the past three years, the percentage of draws have increased and decreased.

Generally, three points are awarded for a win and only one point is awarded for a draw by professional leagues, but it has not reduced the frequency of draw results. The probability of having a draw is not the same in different leagues. Draws occur less frequently in higher leagues than in lower leagues.

Predicting draws with a mathematical approach

It is not enough to know how frequently draws occur in a particular league. You need to know the probability of a draw happening in a particular event. Bookmakers use mathematical approach to calculate likely outcomes and use that to calculate their odds. Normal distribution and Poisson distribution are the two most often used mathematical methods

l  Normal distribution: This mathematical method uses average and frequency of occurrence to predict whether a draw will happen or not. Teams may have the same mean score but they cannot have the same frequency of occurrence. Team A might be consistent, for example, while team B fluctuates in performance. Standard deviation shows the frequency of performance and the difference between the results  and the mean. With this method, you get a more distinct result.

l  Poisson distribution: In Poisson distribution, probability theory is used to predict the likelihood of an event. It can also be used to calculate the chances of having a particular score in football. Using this requires that you calculate the mean goal expectancy of your league first and also their defense strength and attack strength for the two sides. After you have calculated the probability of every particular score to happen, sum up the probabilities of the dresdraw scores too , that is, 0:0, 1:1, 2:2, etc.

Apart from mathematical methods, some other factors can be put into consideration and quantified to increase or reduce the likelihood of a draw. However, they are not highly regarded by bookmakers.

l  Playing method: The method of playing of different teams is not as easy to quantify as other factors like goals scored, attack or defense strength, etc. Scenarios are made up strategically and used to predict how the events of a football match.

l  Motivation: Using motivation depends mostly on where the event is in the season. Teams get more motivated when they need a win or are trying to avoid being consigned. With nothing to lose or win, teams are not afraid of a draw. Also, if a weaker team is plying against a stronger team, they can afford to settle for a draw. all these factors and more can help predict whether there will be a draw or not.

Draw betting strategies

l  Place more bets on draw: This method is as simple as it sounds. Gamers and fans of football often wager whether a team will win or lose, therefore bookmakers get less money from draws. They increase the odds on draws because of this, now you can have real odds on a draw set at 3/1 rather than the previous 2/1. If you place multiple wager and win only one, you are sure to still make profit.

l  Using 0:0 strategy in football: If you are betting that no goals will be scored in the first half, the odds must be less than 1.7, the teams must have an approximated equal strength, the previous games’ statistics of the teams with opposing teams of similar strength and style must be considered.

l  The ‘2 out of 5’ strategy: This strategy involves the use of accumulators. You are required to select five matches which a high chance of having a draw, then you place a system bet, and wager on the doubles. As long as two out of five matches have a draw, you make a profit. However, the odds must be averagely over 23/10 or greater for all selected matches.

l  Draw streak: When a team has a consistent record of draw, it does not necessarily mean they are lucky. As a matter of fact, a draw streak shows a team’s way of thinking and the mentality of the coach. So, take note of teams that consistently have draws and consider them the next time you want to bet on draw.

.