Bankroll Manager for Sports Betting
Have you ever wanted to learn more about Bankroll Manager Value Strategy Probabilities and Kellys Bet? First of all, have in mind that not many people know this strategy by name.
Nevertheless, many resorts make use of it with some modifications of their own (usually a much lower stake use). The Kelly Criterion is a strategy based on an article called “A new interpretation of the Information Rate”. It’s written by JLKelly in 1956.
Table of content:
· The Bet Strategy
Kelly’s criterion is a strategy focused on maximizing the increase in our bankroll. It’s as much as possible through a formula that allows us to calculate the percentage of our bank (that we should make in each bet).
* Professional Betting Strategy With Single Bets
· Formula
This formula may seem somewhat complex. But it’s really quite simple since you only need to know the odds and the probability that you think the bet has to go out. The success of the strategy depends enormously on the ability of each one to calculate the probability of success of each event.
Stake (% of bank) = [[Odd x (Event probability / 100) – 1] / (Odd – 1)] x 100
Example
In a supposed Barcelona – Manchester Utd match, Barcelona’s odds are 3. Therefore, we believe they have a 40% chance of winning. To calculate if that bet has value, based on the percentage that we have assigned, we divide 1 / P (where P, in this case, is 40%). The result is 2.5, that is, that is the quota at which we think it should be. Since the bookmaker’s odds are 3, for us, it has value.
Once we have seen that the bet has value, we proceed to calculate the stake that we must use according to Kelly’s criteria:
a) Stake = [[3 x (40/100) -1] / (3 – 1)] x 100
b) Stake = [[3 x 0.4 – 1] / 2] x 100
c) Stake = [0.2 / 2] x 100
d) Stake = 10%
As we can see according to Kelly’s criteria we would have to place a bet of 10% of our bank at this rate 3. The lower the difference between the possibilities that we give to a bet and those that the bookmakers give, the lower will be the stake used.
Kelly’s Criterion
It must be remembered that this is a strategy for bank growth as fast as possible. So it implies using very high stakes, and it’s vital to control in detail the possibilities that we give to a bet because a small difference in the possibility of The success we give to the bet can mean a big change in the stake % used.
Following the previous example used, if instead of a 40% chance we gave it 30%, the bet would have no value directly. If we gave it 35% the stake used would be 2.5% of ours, four times less than if we give a 40% chance to the bet.
If we realize that even though the value bonanza is not excessive (there is no excessive value), Kelly tells us that we should allocate 2.5% of our bankroll, which in my opinion is excessively high.
Since Kelly is a mathematical formula for maximizing bankroll growth, we can modify the aggressiveness in management by dividing the result obtained by Kelly by 2 or by 4 without losing the benefits of this form of management.
We hope you liked the article about the Bankroll Manager Value Strategy Probabilities and Kellys Bet. See more: Full Sports Betting Guide: Learn and Have Advantage
